The Experience Gap

The headline following the Roland-Garros semifinal between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz — billed as Match Of The Year — is that after two great sets, Alcaraz cramped, which sucked all the air out of the contest. And the end of the contest was certainly airless. Djokovic won 11 of 12 games after Alcaraz cramped, with the latter’s handful of atomic winners while standing stock-still somehow making the scene feel sadder rather than lighter.

So let’s talk about the best part of the match first. Holy shit, is Novak Djokovic a great tactician, and holy shit is Carlos Alcaraz an athletic freak of nature. I somehow managed to underestimate Djokovic coming into the match (I thought Alcaraz would win in five sets), then had the audacity to be surprised when Djokovic started proceedings with brutal execution of brilliant tactics.

The first sign was in the third game, when Alcaraz pushed Djokovic out wide on his forehand side with a sharp crosscourt bolt. On the surface, it was an ideal setup for Alcaraz, who has the stronger offensive forehand (or so I thought). Depending on Djokovic’s response, Alcaraz could hit down the line into the open space, dupe Novak with a drop shot, or even come to net and put the point to bed with a volley. Instead, while fully outstretched, Djokovic fired back a cannon shot of a crosscourt forehand. Alcaraz couldn’t handle the pace and shanked the ball long.

That pattern set the tone. Alcaraz, the more powerful player, looked like he was on ice skates as he constantly changed direction to chase down Djokovic’s groundstrokes that were always at least one of deep, angled, or fast. Novak almost won the first set 6-1, then had a set point for 6-2. When Alcaraz did force break points and threatened to get back in the set, Djokovic foiled him with a big serve or simply drilled crosscourt backhands until Alcaraz got tired of having his weaker side pummeled and self-destructed with an impatient winner attempt.

Sometimes I don’t think people understand quite how easy it is for Djokovic to beat most of the tour. The vast majority of his opponents cannot outperform him in a single area. I’m sure he has strategy sessions before his matches, but if I were him, I wouldn’t bother doing my homework before waltzing out on court to beat the latest chump to a psychological pulp.

Alcaraz is the first opponent Djokovic has played at a major since Rafael Nadal at this tournament last year who had a tangible chance of beating him. Before this match, I could actually picture Djokovic pulling up a chair to a table covered in stat sheets and asking his team with a hint of genuine curiosity, “okay, how am I going to beat this guy?”

But the point is that he figured it out, even before Alcaraz’s body atrophied on him. The young buck may have won the second set, but Djokovic was damn close to stealing it out from under his nose. Alcaraz served for the set at 5-3; Djokovic blasted away with forehands and broke back with an obscene backhand winner down the line. Alcaraz had three set points at 5-4; Djokovic dug out of all of them with winners or by forcing errors. When Djokovic brought up break point at 5-all, I thought he was on the cusp of a straight-set win, something I’d thought was a sheer impossibility before the match.

For the break BACK 💪#RolandGarros | @DjokerNole pic.twitter.com/ZM1k0gE44n

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 9, 2023

To his immense credit, Alcaraz won the second set anyway. He got back a backhand down the line from Djokovic at 5-all, love-15 that, even fully understanding Alcaraz’s outrageous defensive capabilities, I was certain was too far behind him to possibly hoick back between the lines. In the end, his immense return pressure was telling and he broke Djokovic at love. Alcaraz celebrated like he had won the match.

As it turned out — and here we arrive at the less fun part of the match — it took all he had just to win the set. Through two games of the third, it looked like Djokovic was a bit listless and Alcaraz, the seemingly indefatigable force that had won three straight five-setters at the 2022 U.S. Open, was in the ascendancy. Alcaraz’s cramps, he revealed after the match, were down to nerves rather than physical fatigue. But either way, Djokovic gets the credit for forcing Alcaraz into his hobbled state. Some of Novak’s fans insistently brought up that Djokovic was 16 years older than Alcaraz before the match, trying to cushion a hypothetical loss with a reassuring enough excuse. Well, besides a medical timeout for a forearm issue, Djokovic looked unbothered by the attritional first two sets. In fact, his age may have been his greatest asset in this match. He started the match looser, visibly comfortable even against the high level of opposition. This, Djokovic’s 45th major semifinal, was nothing new for him.

So this is something that Djokovic has to feel in his bones right now, and should give him confidence – he doesn't have to play outside of himself to have a chance today. Doing his usual stuff at a high level is all that is needed.

— Juan José (@jjvallejoa) June 9, 2023

In stark contrast, this felt like the first match in a very long time — maybe in his entire professional career — that Alcaraz has been seriously pushed beyond his limits. Reminded that there are levels even among great players. And I’m not just talking about nerve management and cramps here. Alcaraz couldn’t convert his break points; he was 2/12 on the match and failed to break in four different games that he had break points in. Entering the match, it seemed like his advantages were firepower and endurance; Djokovic somehow outgunned him in both departments. Djokovic outplayed Alcaraz at net, including how he handled the drop shot! Even in Alcaraz’s losses in the past, I’d feel that he’d either just had a bad day or had come very close to taking a step he wasn’t quite ready for. Here, the gap in experience was painfully obvious. Djokovic made me think of Alcaraz as a kid for the last hour of the match.

*****

You’d think I would have stopped underestimating Djokovic after I picked Daniil Medvedev to beat him in the 2021 Australian Open final (Djokovic lost nine games). But I figured out a way to do it again during the manic leadup to this match, and the first half of the event itself. I thought Alcaraz would win after the second set. I brainstormed the intros and conclusions I would write when Alcaraz won — should I lean on the “changing of the guard” narrative? Should I remind people that Djokovic will probably still win Wimbledon?

Speaking of the changing of the guard, I have a theory: The obsession with the future kings of men’s tennis has always been more about the curiosity over the level required to displace the Big Three than about the actual identity of the kings. We’ve seen talented youngster after talented youngster for a couple generations now. We’ve gotten to know the Tomics and the Dimitrovs and the Nishikoris and the Kyrgioses and the Raonics and the Tsitsipases and the Auger-Aliassimes and the- wow, the Big Three have been at the top for a long time. Exciting prospects are nothing new. The intrigue is over their potential. And for years now, potential for a young, high-ranked men’s tennis player has become more or less interchangeable with the question of if they can beat Novak Djokovic.

Alcaraz did in Madrid last year. I thought he would show us the level required to beat Djokovic in a major for the non-Roger-Federer-and-Rafael-Nadal population. But Djokovic beat him tonight, under brighter lights and greater pressure. Dominic Thiem once said that he wanted to beat the Big Three en route to major titles, because waiting for them to retire would feel like a consolation prize. Like the Roy children in Succession, the young guns of the ATP don’t just want the keys to the kingdom, they want to take them from the current holders. When their father died, you could see a bit of air go out of the Roys with the realization that they didn’t have the opportunity to one-up him anymore. (And, fittingly, none of them ended up taking his throne.)

I have no doubt that Alcaraz will improve as a result of this loss. But he was nowhere close to beating Djokovic; he was about as far away as Thiem was from beating Nadal in the 2019 Roland-Garros final. Maybe Alcaraz — clearly the best prospect for succeeding the Big Three — will show up at Roland-Garros next year, manage his nerves better, and spank Djokovic in four sets. But with Djokovic still in the picture, and playing at this level? Maybe a consolation prize is as good as it gets.