The Gatecrasher

By Tom Jones

Daniil Medvedev against Carlos Alcaraz has been an odd matchup in 2023. They’re the last two U.S. Open champions and the only two players outside of the Big Four to be world number one since 2004. They have both had major roles as the biggest challenger to unsettling Novak Djokovic (and to an extent, Rafael Nadal) at the top of the game in the last three years as well.  

And yet, they are two players who have felt in recent times like their careers are going in completely opposite directions. Alcaraz has become the ascendant, the “true heir” to the Big Three. Meanwhile, Daniil Medvedev’s relevance at the truly elite level of men’s tennis was on the slide ever since he lost the Australian Open final to Nadal from two sets up and lost the #1 ranking after just three weeks.

Medvedev has since reestablished himself as a true force again at world number three, a tier just below Djokovic and Alcaraz. But even so, the Alcaraz matchup still highlights how different things are from Medvedev’s peak in 2021 and the start of 2022. 

Medvedev is arguably a perfect representation of this generation of men’s tennis, the original “NextGen”. These players are pure baseliners with limited and uncomfortable net games, but an almost unmatched rally tolerance and huge serves to make up for it. You win by being near unbreakable, and if opponents can get the serve in play they still have to compete with wall-like defense.

Players like Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner have struggled so much with Medvedev because when at his best he nullifies all their strengths. The extremely deep return position limits the effects of their serving, his defense from the back of the court can absorb the groundstrokes and get them back all day. 

Rublev, and to an extent Sinner, lack the volleying skill to effectively attack Medvedev; they can’t serve and volley reliably and they lack tools like a drop shot to make Medvedev sweat. It’s forehands and backhands, and Medvedev’s are better. 

And then there’s Carlos Alcaraz. There are a lot of things Alcaraz does incredibly well. His forehand is outrageous, especially when he wants to show you how hard he can hit it. His movement and athleticism are almost unmatched on tour now. He’s a blend of lighting attacks with sensational defence as a bonus. 

But what really sets Alcaraz apart from his contemporaries and the generations that failed before him, beyond just being “better”, is his touch. He regularly serves and volleys and is comfortable at the net. His signature forehand drop shot is so precise and gets so much disguise it’s near unstoppable. Even when he hits it badly, players are forced so deep by Alcaraz’s topspin forehands that sometimes they still can’t get there in time. 

And so, Alcaraz can be a nightmare matchup for Medvedev. The deep return position and commitment to rallying behind the baseline are quite easily punished by the serve and volley of Alcaraz alongside those delightful drop shots. Even with Medvedev’s footspeed, he can’t get to all of them. Medvedev thrived as the ultimate baseline machine, but when someone has a more complete game to punish that he can come unstuck. 

Their first two matches of 2023 were extremely one-sided. Alcaraz won their Indian Wells final 6-3, 6-2 under extremely limited pressure. It was the worst hard-court Medvedev could have played him on; an extremely slow surface that asks him to hit through the court and one he couldn’t slide on. When one player can hit through conditions and the other can’t, there’s usually only one winner. 

The Wimbledon semi-final was equally uncompetitive, again Medvedev struggling with the conditions. His deep return position was just never going to be the winning play on a grass court, and it only allowed Alcaraz to come to the net and use the drop shot even more. His forehand would effortlessly penetrate through the court in rallies and leave Medvedev exposed, unable to slide into shots or set himself properly. Alcaraz could diffuse any tension with a simple drop shot at any point. It ended 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 in under two hours. 

After that, many people thought this matchup was impossible for Medvedev. Having seen him outgunned and with no solution to the issues created by his deep return position, he was widely written off in the matchup. Alcaraz was only going to get better, Medvedev had had his time as the main man already. Now he was back down to earth, and some wondered if he would ever beat Alcaraz again.

I was always a little more optimistic, if only because the two matches before were in the worst possible conditions for Medvedev. A court he can’t hit through and two he can’t slide on. My belief had been and remains that on a more regulation hard-court- i.e., not the gritty conditions of Indian Wells– Medvedev can genuinely challenge and beat Alcaraz. 

Even with optimism, though, I wasn’t expecting Medvedev to end up two sets to love up in a U.S. Open semi-final against Alcaraz, making the defending champion absolutely spiral in panic on Arthur Ashe Stadium. 

*****

Admittedly, the match could have easily started in Alcaraz’s favor. Medvedev was nervous in his early service games, with several double faults. Had Alcaraz converted some early break points, this match might have looked very different. Medvedev was ultimately able to survive in part thanks to being able to aim serves repeatedly at Alcaraz’s forehand and force errors. Alcaraz, for his part, was doing the same on his service games. 

The scoreline was being kept even and on serve in that opening set, but it didn’t feel particularly like Medvedev was close to taking it for large parts. There were a lot of miscued Alcaraz forehands, but never enough to cause genuine problems. Alcaraz was still comfortably relying on his net play to bail him out of trouble if things ever got even vaguely dangerous for him. Medvedev’s return was unthreatening for most of the set. 

But he managed to get himself into a tiebreak. Having finally found rhythm on his serve, he wasn’t under threat so often and was beginning to make inroads on return. His speed and anticipation carried him to more of those drop volleys. He was finding a way to take Alcaraz out of his comfort zone, and when his own serve was becoming impenetrable it was the winning recipe.

So, Medvedev took the first set in the tiebreak. And then Alcaraz imploded. I can only assume that the panic set in because he was being pushed by a player he previously had, or thought he had, completely worked out. Now, though, Medvedev was a new prospect. Alcaraz couldn’t just use the drop shot as a get-out-of-jail-free card anymore. A player he was so comfortably beating on his own terms previously was now matching him and beating him, and it unsettled the Spaniard deeply.

The errors began to fly. Alcaraz seemed desperate to up the intensity but was misfiring frequently. In his efforts to regain control, he slowed down the points, but that simply played into the hands of Medvedev, the metronomic baseline king. When Alcaraz did attack, Medvedev came up with mind-boggling retrievals, like a sliding backhand slice pass to break for 5-1. The second set was as comfortable as it gets in a grand slam semi-final against the world number one. 

Medvedev is making shots tonight!

Wow. pic.twitter.com/R4Nm5YDMPy

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 9, 2023

Of course, I don’t think any of us expected Alcaraz to just give in there and then. He is far too good — and proud — for that. He went off court after that 6-1 set to regroup as you might expect, then came out at the start of the third raring to go again. It felt like he’d now struck the right temperament and found his groove again; intensity but without the panic, shots that weren’t going to miss. He started flaying forehand passing shots by Medvedev, securing an early break and not looking back.

I think the feeling among those watching, beyond the expectation of an Alcaraz improvement, was a lack of trust in Daniil Medvedev. A certain legendary comeback from two sets to love down by Rafael Nadal against the Russian– a loss that demoralised and derailed the majority of his 2022 season–was looming over him. And when Alcaraz had break points at the start of the fourth, I thought we were looking at a sequel. 

But then Medvedev managed to hold, hanging on to some momentum. I do wonder what might have happened had Alcaraz broken and taken control of that set, taking another lead and beginning to set serious doubt into the mind of Daniil Medvedev. In retrospect, it’s hard not to see it as a major sliding doors moment in that semi-final. 

Serving 2-3 down, Alcaraz found himself unable to convert a game point and faced endless deuces. Medvedev had found his groove on the return, cranking extreme angles even from his remote court positioning and Alcaraz was leaking uncharacteristic errors again. With every deuce point Alcaraz won, it felt like he had escaped the danger. But each time Medvedev pegged him back, and you just felt there was something there for him.

This match is getting better by the minute!

This time it's Medvedev with the hustle and the winner. pic.twitter.com/h73YM3hYxV

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 9, 2023

With a second break point, he did, with a stunning cross court backhand return that Alcaraz couldn’t get over the net on his approach. Alcaraz’s tried-and-true serve and volley tactic had been foiled by Medvedev’s lasered returns. 

The 4-2 game from Medvedev was perfection. Huge serves rattled down, stopping Alcaraz getting any momentum and immediately the defending champion was 5-2 down. It was a masterclass from Medvedev, playing extremely quickly and efficiently…until it came to serving it out. 

Medvedev’s first serve deserted him in the final game. The lack of first serves had been an issue at various points in the match, and all summer, frankly, because it consistently led to two outcomes: a) an aggressive second serve return from Alcaraz putting him on the backfoot, or b) a double fault. He was regularly hitting 120 mph second serves to stop Alcaraz gaining any advantage.

Medvedev served multiple double faults in the final game and hardly found a first serve to relieve any pressure. He was 15-40 down. After all that work to break the Alcaraz serve, to stave off the comeback and to see out the match, he was close to losing his win and handing momentum back to him. 

Alcaraz was unbelievably close to closing out the comeback, too. Medvedev hit a rushed forehand that landed two millimeters inside the court which Alcaraz then blasted long. With the chance wasted, he looked down at the court and the edge of the line, shocked an out call hadn’t come. The margins in tennis do not get much finer than that. 

While Medvedev was extremely clutch in seeing out the game despite his serving struggles, Alcaraz really let him off the hook at times. He hit some poor errors to let Medvedev escape, including a regulation crosscourt forehand error on another break point, and while credit should obviously go to Medvedev for finding a way to get over the line, Alcaraz had many second serves to look at but just did not punish some of them like he’s become expected to do.

But regardless of a bad final return game from Alcaraz, Medvedev thoroughly deserved this win. After his early wobble in the first set, he cruised through his service games and managed to get more joy on return. Put him on a suitable hard court and he will thrive. 

He ran down drop shots from Alcaraz all evening- it was quite stunning to watch. I really expected him to begin to fatigue in the latter stages of that fourth set. He certainly looked dishevelled and sweaty at times after sliding up to the net for yet another drop shot, but he never gassed out. 

Medvedev’s problem in Indian Wells and Wimbledon was that he had no response to the serve and volley. At times tonight he lacked those answers still; Alcaraz got his fair share of points won by pulling Medvedev out of position on return and laying a simple volley into the middle of the court that was unreachable. 

But today, Medvedev’s game and the surface allowed him to find answers far more than he had at any point before. He could hit through the court – his forehand, typically a weakness against the highest level of opposition, was superb. He maintained that deep return position while finding angles sharp enough to foil Alcaraz’s net rushes, and he consistently answered the Alcaraz drop shot. He fully deserved this win in what was arguably one of the most impressive performances of his career. 

Alcaraz will have a lot of regrets. I think he played quite poorly at various points, especially in the second set. I was quite alarmed to see him spiral so badly, because I’ve just never seen anyone put that kind of pressure on him and force such a loose performance. Even in his difficult moments against Djokovic, it’s been more about being outplayed than losing his head like this. 

I think Medvedev’s court coverage and return rocked him. It’s not just the dominance he’s had over Medvedev in their matches this year, it’s the fact that he wasn’t able to be fully confident and reliant on his favorite play: the drop shot. It got punished, it was consistently retrieved, and winning was going to require a level of perfection that Alcaraz wasn’t able to offer. 

It’s an important lesson for him, I feel. Just because he’s the next great player doesn’t mean he’s going to get everything easy. Novak Djokovic isn’t the only man who can challenge him, and he isn’t the only thing that Alcaraz should be thinking about. Alcaraz frankly embarrassed Medvedev on two of the biggest stages in the sport, that’s going to put a lot of motivation in the mind of the Russian to right those wrongs and win. Medvedev is more than just the other guy behind the top two. 

Medvedev has relished the role of gatecrasher at times. Two years ago, here he stopped Novak Djokovic winning the calendar slam by beating him in a convincing and comfortable straight sets final. Four years ago, he found himself two sets to love down to Rafael Nadal but battled it deep into a fifth set in arguably the match of the year – he just did not go away. And at the start of last year, he had Nadal on the ropes in Australia, on the cusp of getting a second grand slam title and another swift straight sets win over a member of the Big Three. 

Sure, he didn’t see out either of those matches against Nadal — that’s a difficult matchup for him I wish I had time to discuss the technical intricacies of — but he got damn close. Upon breaking back when Nadal served for the title for the first-time in Melbourne, he waved his arms, urging the crowd to make some noise. No one in that stadium was cheering for Daniil Medvedev, but he was going to relish crashing their Nadal party as long as he could. 

He did the same here tonight, trying to pump up a crowd that was entirely behind Carlos Alcaraz, giving them a thumbs up in the final game after the repeated applause for every fault he hit. Daniil Medvedev does not care whether you like him, he does not care if you want to watch Carlos Alcaraz get to another final or witness the history of Djokovic achieving the calendar slam. Throw all you like at him, he will take it, and he will ultimately see himself over the finish line. 

No one was talking about Medvedev as a contender for this title coming into this U.S. Open. He’s had plenty of success this year but mainly in swings he has previously struggled in, the Sunshine Double, Rome, and Wimbledon. He had an uncharacteristically poor North American summer, losing to Alex de Minaur in Toronto and Alexander Zverev in Cincinnati. 

Everyone expected another Djokovic-Alcaraz final, everyone wanted another Djokovic-Alcaraz final. I think many of us expected Medvedev to make the semis but like at Wimbledon to fall quite tamely to Alcaraz. Novak and Carlos were the real stars of the ATP and were far ahead of anyone else, and this matchup was increasingly being thought of as a lost cause for Medvedev. 

I don’t think this means Medvedev will suddenly cope with Alcaraz easily. It still took a lot of work to get the win and had multiple sliding doors moments- break points early in the first set for Alcaraz, break points early in the fourth and in that final game. 

But regardless, he has a huge and fully deserved win to his name over the sensational Carlos Alcaraz in New York. This is Medvedev’s best court and his best tournament. He now has a fifth grand slam final (all five will have been against Nadal or Djokovic) and a third at the US Open. That is nothing to scoff at.

On Sunday, he will have the chance to become the ultimate gatecrasher again and take the title from Djokovic, beating the world number one and two back-to-back in a tournament where they were sucking up all the oxygen. 

But regardless of what Medvedev does against Djokovic, he has the win he was after. He’s made his statement to those who doubted whether he could still hang with the very best in men’s tennis. Carlos Alcaraz is a bad matchup for Daniil Medvedev, but Medvedev showed us that it’s not an impossible one.