By Troy Finnegan
It’s time for the first Masters 1000 of the year in Tennis Paradise, Indian Wells, where there are plenty of storylines to go around. Carlos Alcaraz defends his title, Novak Djokovic is back in Indian Wells for the first time since 2019, and Jannik Sinner seems like he may never lose another match. Let’s get into the draw of the first leg of the Sunshine Double.
Novak Djokovic’s Quarter
Top Seeds: [1] Novak Djokovic, [8] Hubert Hurkacz, [9] Casper Ruud, [14] Ugo Humbert
Burning Question: How surface-versatile is Ugo Humbert’s recent form?
Humbert has leveled up across the board in 2024, full stop. His serving numbers are way up across the board, and he’s won two titles already. The latest of which came in Dubai last week, where be knocked off Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev on the way to the final against Alexander Bublik. There’s no doubt that Humbert’s flat-hitting and baseline-hugging style is very effective on slick courts that allow him to rush opponents, and he’s been redirecting the ball very effectively so far this year.
The question now becomes, how does his game translate to slower, higher bouncing courts like Indian Wells? He didn’t win a main draw match here until last year, when he lost in the round of 32 against Andrey Rublev, and he’s 9-23 in his career on clay at ATP level (not an apples to apples comparison, but you get the point). He should make round three at minimum with his draw, and a match between him and Tommy Paul in that round of 32 would be a spectacle.
Bracket Buster: Alex Michelsen
The young American is starting to make a name for himself on the tour in 2024 after a NextGen Finals appearance at the end of last year, and the California native will now make his Indian Wells debut. He’s picked up some very impressive wins this season. Beating Jiri Lehecka at the Australian Open and Alex de Minaur in Los Cabos a few weeks ago. Closing out matches has become a slight concern (he’s lost two matches in 2024 after bageling the opponent in the first set!), and is coming off of a brutal loss in Los Cabos against Jordan Thompson where he had three match points, was up a break in both the second and third sets, and served for the match. Regardless, his recent form suggests he should get past Jaume Munar in round one and advance to play Paul, who he just narrowly lost to in a final set tiebreak in Delray Beach last month.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Novak Djokovic over Casper Ruud in 2 sets
Do you know how long it’s been since Novak Djokovic played at Indian Wells? The last match he played there, he lost to Philipp Kohlschreiber. That’s a long time ago! After a poor showing against Jannik Sinner in Melbourne, I expect Novak to be ready to go and very motivated to take home the title in Tennis Paradise, where he is 50-9 in his career and has taken home the big prize five times. His draw is very manageable until round four, and even then it would be a shocker to see him taken down.
Ruud has quietly been in very good form on the hard courts in 2024, and while he just missed out on a pair of titles in Mexico last month, I’m very high on the way he’s playing. Ruud went 13-14 on hard courts over the entire 2023 season; he’s 13-3 in 2024. In the top 50, the Norwegian is holding serve more often than everybody not named Jannik Sinner or Hubert Hurkacz in 2024, which is stellar company to be in. Now, he gets to transition to courts that really suit his game, and his draw is very nice until a potential round of 16 against Hurkacz. Hope he’s ready to play a few tiebreaks.
Daniil Medvedev’s Quarter
Top Seeds: [4] Daniil Medvedev, [7] Holger Rune, [12] Taylor Fritz, [13] Grigor Dimitrov
Burning Question: Is Holger Rune ready to make another deep run at a big event?
I’m not totally sure what to make of Rune so far this year. He made a coaching change, with Boris Becker and Severin Luthi out and Patrick Mouratoglou in (again). He made the final in Brisbane before losing in the second round of the Australian Open against Arthur Cazaux (who could’ve beaten just about anyone that night). He looked pretty good in Acapulco last week before his legs abandoned him late in the third set of his semifinal against Ruud, although I’ve been encouraged by his seemingly improved physicality up until that point. All in all, he’s 11-5 on the year. His record in 2023 coming into Indian Wells? 11-5!
For all of his immense talent, the young Dane has made just one quarterfinal in his last seven big tournaments, dating back to Wimbledon 2023, the final tournament before his notorious slump began. This isn’t me sounding any long-term alarm at all, but he does have a ton of ranking points to defend in the coming months on the clay, and it would benefit him to get back in the mix for a big trophy before then. His draw isn’t bad… after the obvious caveat of not knowing what level Rafael Nadal is ready to bring as a possible round two opponent. If he can get through that, his round of 32 will be easier on paper, and a win there earns him a spot in the last 16. It’s all out in front of him if he’s ready for it.
Bracket Buster: Rafael Nadal
I mean, this had to be it, right? Nadal hasn’t played an official match since suffering another injury in Brisbane, and returned to the court last weekend in the Netflix Slam (which, as a hater of exhibitions, was a great event). His form in Brisbane, however, was pretty good, and he looked pretty sharp in Las Vegas on Sunday in conditions that don’t suit his game as well as the ones in Indian Wells. The obvious question for Nadal is the movement with the hip injury. He’s got an interesting first round against Milos Raonic, a Lost Gen member who also isn’t moving great these days, but serves the lights out and has actually played at a very high level this season when he’s been able to stay on the court.
Rune in the second round could get tricky. The 20-year old has the defensive skills and the willingness to sit back and force Nadal to move around and play a lot of balls, which would be a fascinating matchup to watch. But it’s Rafael Nadal, who has won this tournament three times. Am I picking him? No, but I’m not counting him out either.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Taylor Fritz over Grigor Dimitrov in 3 sets
I want to give Fritz a shoutout. It feels like the American has flown a bit under the radar this season, but he’s playing the best tennis that I’ve seen from him in his career, save for that magical run to the title here in his backyard in 2022. Go back and watch the first two sets of his Australian Open quarterfinal against Djokovic. Fritz was incredible in earning a split of the first two sets, before Novak turned up the dial and slowly sucked the life out of the rest of the match. In 2024, Fritz’s return stats are up, and we know how lethal the serve can be. He’s at least trying to find some different ways to finish points, drop shotting and coming into the net more often. Is it always pretty? No. Is it still beneficial and encouraging? Yes!
Grigor Dimitrov is having a great year that feels a little quiet since we haven’t seen him since Rotterdam. He won the title in Brisbane, made the final in Marseille and the semis in Rotterdam. Grigor is serving spectacularly, winning 82.5% of his first serve points in 2024, which is good for the top spot among the top 50. The Bulgarian is 6th in Elo heading into Indian Wells, and that matches the eye test. He’s just really tough to beat right now. Adrian Mannarino is his round three seed, who will likely struggle with the conditions. All signs point to a round of 16 match with Medvedev, who only played one tournament since the Australian Open and really struggled with his serve, possibly due to a nagging shoulder injury. All signs point to Dimitrov having a good showing.
Carlos Alcaraz’s Quarter
Top Seeds: [2] Carlos Alcaraz, [6] Alexander Zverev, [10] Alex de Minaur, [15] Karen Khachanov
Burning Question: How many players are better than Alex de Minaur right now?
De Minaur is on a tear. He’s fresh off of defending his title in Acapulco, is 15-4 in 2024 and is now firmly established as a top 10 player. He’s 4-2 against fellow top 10’s this season, and that doesn’t include his victory in the Acapulco final against Casper Ruud, who returned to the top 10 this week. He’s holding serve at a higher rate than ever despite still being underpowered on the first delivery, and his savvy baseline play and incredible defensive skills are now accompanied by a newfound willingness to play a little more offense. The Aussie is flattening out his forehand and doing serious damage with it in 2024, and coming into net a little bit more often.
In theory, Indian Wells doesn’t suit de Minaur’s game as well as the faster ones that he’s been tearing it up on in recent weeks, but I still trust his speed, his defense and his forehand to hold up here. A possible round of 32 tilt with Alexander Bublik would be a fascinating contrast of styles, and he’s knocked off Zverev (projected R16) once this year already.
Bracket Buster: Jack Draper
Every preview that you’ve read for basically any tournament in the last few years has had Jack Draper as a bracket buster, and this one will be no different. The Brit has finally been able to consistently show the top 20 level that we’ve seen from him in spurts over his young career, already reaching the final in Adelaide and the semis in Acapulco. The talented 22-year old has every shot in the book, with a strong serve and power off of both wings, and it appears his physicality is improving ever so slightly. Draper gets Christopher O’Connell in the first round before a possible showdown with Zverev, one of the most mouthwatering possible round twos on the board.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz defeats Alex de Minaur in 3 sets
I had Demon winning this match until the second I began writing this section, but I really trust that Alcaraz has got to get back to his top form at some point soon. I know he’s coming off of the ankle injury, but it looked okay in Las Vegas, and he’ll have another five days or so between then and his first match to continue to recover. For my money, Indian Wells 2023 was the highest level of tennis that Alcaraz has played in his career, as he rolled through a draw that included three top 15 players without dropping a set. It’s true that he hasn’t had the same feeling of inevitability since the Wimbledon title, where he’s just 24-11, but he’s too talented to not remain at the top of the game.
There are some interesting matchups for Alcaraz in this section, as a possible clash with Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-3 H2H) awaits in round three, and Karen Khachanov or Nicolas Jarry potentially looms in the last 16. Jarry just beat Alcaraz on clay in Buenos Aires, and Khachanov could trouble the Spaniard with his machine-like consistency, but I still trust Alcaraz to make it through.
Jannik Sinner’s Quarter
Top Seeds: [3] Jannik Sinner, [5] Andrey Rublev, [11] Stefanos Tsitsipas, [16] Ben Shelton
Burning Question: Can anyone beat Jannik Sinner in 2024?
Sinner has been rolling. Let’s get to the numbers first. He’s 12-0 in 2024, on a 15-match winning streak (including the Davis Cup) since losing to Djokovic in Turin, and he’s 32-2 since the US Open. Including his Davis Cup win over Djokovic, he has won 12 of his last 13 matches against top 10 players, dating back to Wimbledon. In 2024, he leads the top 50 in hold percentage, is fourth in break percentage, and is shredding opponent second serves. You roll one into the middle of the box, and the Italian will send it right back at your feet with plenty of interest. And how about what he’s doing in the clutch? Sinner has faced 60 break points in 2024 and saved 50 of them, easily the highest percentage in the top 50. He’s been broken just 10 times in 12 matches this year.
The eye test backs all of the data up. The power off of both wings is still devastating, but he’s managing it better than ever nowadays, playing with more margin and opening up plenty of angles. Sinner is playing shots now that help him win the point on the next ball, or in two balls, rather than just going for winners, which has played a major part in his rise to the top of the game. The first serve is deadly when it’s landing, but don’t cheat too far out wide on that ad side or he will change it up and rifle one down the middle…Just ask Medvedev. He still defends out of the corners better than anyone outside of Djokovic, and he’s not afraid to throw in a drop shot or charge into the net to put away a volley. He won’t go forever without losing, but it will take a heck of an effort to bring him back down to Earth.
Bracket Buster: Jakub Mensik
I’ve really enjoyed the rise of Mensik over the last month or so, who made his first ATP final in Doha before a long couple of weeks caught up to him and forced a retirement in Dubai. But what a few weeks it was. The 18-year old took the tour by storm with a big serve, plenty of power from the back of the court, and surprising athleticism and defensive skills for a young man standing at 6-foot-4. He’s played three matches against top 20 players in 2024, losing in five sets against Hubert Hurkacz in Australia before beating Rublev in Doha. He fell just short against Khachanov in a close two-set final there, but it’s safe to say his days of taking anyone by surprise are over. Mensik gets a qualifier first before a possible clash with Ben Shelton, which would be sure to produce plenty of fireworks.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Jannik Sinner over Andrey Rublev in 2 sets
First off, I hope Rublev and the linesperson involved in last week’s incident in Dubai are okay. Rublev has seemed especially on edge for a little while now, whether it be his outbursts in Shanghai or the UTS, or even seeming easily irritated at the Australian Open no matter the score. The Dubai incident, sadly, was not necessarily surprising, and I wish the ATP would just set a precedent that what he did was not acceptable. Having a five minute on-court discussion about what language he was speaking or what words he allegedly did or did not say was beside the point and only fueled a controversy that didn’t need to exist, as did restoring his points and prize money from the event. Regardless, I hope this is a wake up call for Rublev and he can get back to enjoying playing the sport that he loves at the high level that we love watching him at.
On the tennis side, Rublev has still been as consistent as ever. He’s reached at least the quarterfinals of his last four big events (excluding the Tour Finals, which doesn’t have quarterfinals) dating back to the US Open. He’s got a pretty favorable draw here as well, and while Jiri Lehecka is interesting in round three, he’s less dangerous to me on a slow surface. Sinner should be pretty happy with his deal in the early going as well, although I’m sure he would jump at the chance to play Shelton, who has played him very tough recently, in the last 16.
Final Weekend Prediction
Semifinal 1: Novak Djokovic over Taylor Fritz in 2 sets
Semifinal 2: Jannik Sinner over Carlos Alcaraz in 3 sets
Final: Novak Djokovic over Jannik Sinner in 3 sets
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