By Mario Boccardi
A few Fridays back, predicting a Carlos Alcaraz win over Jannik Sinner at Indian Wells seemed a sacrilege, but today – after the Spaniard’s win in California not so long ago – most people almost seem to have forgotten everything that the Italian has done in recent months. Not to mention Daniil Medvedev. Every time he reaches a big final – and there have been so many over the past few seasons – people praise his great consistency, and denigrate those who criticize him. However, when he loses in the final, people celebrate with ardor his defeat and denigrate those that defend him. But where is the truth? I will try to express my point of view on the current landscape of men’s tennis at the top. Ah, a premise: I arbitrarily decided to exclude Novak Djokovic from this introduction, because in my opinion we are talking about a tennis player that has now consolidated his name as that of the strongest tennis player in history and it would be ungenerous – especially at the age of 36 – to consider him alongside guys between 20 and 28 years old that are still in the very midst of their own careers.
The thesis that I am about to pursue is as follows: to exaggerate in tennis – and to be honest in life in general – is useless and, indeed, counterproductive. To prove it, I will start from the Indian Wells champion, Carlos Alcaraz. On the 16th July last year, after beating Djokovic in an extraordinary final at Wimbledon, there was definitely exaggeration in the predictions about his future. Someone said that that Djokovic’s 23 slams (at the time, there were 23) would be clearly surpassed by the Murcian, who would win 30 or maybe even 35; others pointed out that men’s tennis could become boring, with Alcaraz dominating in the coming years without anyone approaching his level. Just from that moment, a small drop came from the current world number 2. He did not raise a trophy for nine months and had to wait until this past Californian week to be back winning a title. Worrying? I don’t know to what extent, at least from my point of view, a 20-year-old player struggling – in relation to what he has accustomed us to – for a few months is something worth making a drama about. When he lost the semi-finals at the US Open and the ATP Finals, and the quarter-final at the Australian Open, immediately we got catastrophic predictions. For some, Alcaraz was in deep crisis, for others he would not be able to repeat his successes ever again. And these people were obviously wrong, as Indian Wells week demonstrated. Today, Alcaraz seems to be unbeatable again.
So what is the truth? None of these in my opinion. I would now consider Jannik Sinner for comparison. The Italian is still the player of the moment. Yes, he lost against Alcaraz a week or so ago, but he still won a set 6-1 in the match, he triumphed in the most recent Grand Slam tournament, and he is also the one who has won the most matches over the last six months: 36 of the last 39 played (92.3%), while Alcaraz has won 19 out of 27 (70.4%) and Daniil Medvedev has won 25 out of 34 (73.5%). Furthermore, if we consider the matches the Top 4 of the ATP rankings played against each other over the past 52 weeks (i.e. from Miami 2023 to today), Sinner is still the one with the highest percentage of matches won (9-4, 69.2%), better than Djokovic (6-4, 60.0%), Alcaraz (5-6, 45.5%) and Medvedev (2-8, 20.0%). What does all this mean? That Alcaraz certainly took a big step forward in Indian Wells compared to the last few weeks, winning and convincing even the most skeptical, but in my opinion, Sinner remains the most in form player for now and the one who is currently expressing the best overall level. And this, despite the fact that between the two it is Alcaraz who has had the most successful career up to this point, and therefore perhaps the one that can still be considered the most promising.
How many contradictions, right? It almost seems like my reasoning isn’t logical, and yet I don’t agree at all. It is always important to know how to read the moment and in doing so, consider not only the last tournament, nor even all of the last three seasons, but rather a period of time that allows us to look at the real form of the players without going back to things so far gone that they no longer have any impact on the present and the near future. I’ll give you an example. Considering Sinner the tennis player of the moment after Beijing last October would have been a huge exaggeration because the results of the previous months established the opposite; in the same way, considering today Alcaraz as the tennis player of the moment seems equally exaggerated for the same reason. And in the same way you shouldn’t go wrong in the opposite direction. Should the two meet in Paris-Bercy, how much value would that match won by Alcaraz in 2021 have? Not much. If the two were to meet on clay, how much value would that match won by Sinner at Umag in 2022 have? Not much.
And so we return to the starting point. It is clearly easier to get clicks and views by taking strong positions or making clear predictions, because they would spark discussion and bring interest from both sides, those who agree with you and those who don’t agree in the slightest. But why can’t we do better than this? Why can’t we instead push towards reasoning and moderation, which – especially in a sport like tennis – are always the right way of proceeding? Of course, I took advantage of this article to express my current opinion on the strongest players in men’s tennis currently (remembering that Djokovic must not be forgotten), but I am writing these few lines first of all to promote an approach to the subject which I firmly believe to be the most correct, scientific and rational.
And I’m careful with this! I am a very emotional and passionate person too. In fact, I confess that I get moved to tears at least once a week thanks to tennis. But I don’t think it’s right that these emotions should influence the ability to reason with judgment and with numbers in our hands, which are fundamental to support any thesis. In conclusion, what I would like is for us to be able to appreciate this sport more without falling into the traps to which our mind is subjected every day by our hearts and our instincts. And this should be in every circumstance, even after the most bitter defeat of our favorite tennis player or after the most brilliant win of the player we are least passionate about.
Also remember that if tennis was so easy to comment on and predict, perhaps it wouldn’t be so popular, and talking or writing about tennis is wonderful because you can have great satisfaction when you’re right. But trust me, the times that that tennis surprise you with what actually happens are decidedly more numerous and frequent, even if you truly are an expert of the game. Remember when Medvedev was about to face Alcaraz in the US Open semi-finals last year? Almost nobody was giving him chances given how their last two meetings went. And yet, he won. At the same time, few people at the end of the 2022 season were thinking of Sinner as a potential major champion in just 15-months time. And yet, here we are with the Australian Open trophy in his cabinet. So? Am I saying that we should stop commenting on this sport or expressing opinions, sometimes even in a bold way? Absolutely not, because there is nothing wrong with being proven wrong by facts in the future, but only if in the process you have relied on is based on logic and rationality, as well as partly on feelings and emotions (which are important too). Of course, it is very difficult, especially in a world where social media impacts our opinions so easily. But it is still possible. It has to be.
For this to happen, we need a radical change in our perspective. “Let’s pay attention to the title, make it catchy and don’t be afraid to change a few words”, was always repeated to me when at 17, I started my journalistic career reporting the mayoral candidates’ interviews in my small town here in Italy. And so for a dozen more clicks on the website and a few mentions elsewhere, I was forced to do things which have always been contrary to my way of acting and thinking. And for this reason, for a year now, I have stopped writing as an employee and I am doing it only for myself, even without earning money and just because I love to do it.
Why? Because we need a change of direction if we want to get out of this vortex of news and articles that do nothing other than lead us towards an exasperation of that exaggeration and sensationalism that I spoke about just now. And tennis would also benefit from this, as well as our mind and our ability to think sensibly and with foresight. I don’t know if the opinions I have just expressed may seem arrogant to some of you, and if this is the case, please know that it was not intended. However, I believe that a new direction is needed in the tennis world and out-with it too, so that we can be more calm and less mainstream in our judgments, even if this could initially lead us to lose some likes or to be noticed more slowly by some people or publishers. It just takes a little courage. Easy? Not at all. But it’s what I believe.
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