By Troy Finnegan
The third WTA 1000 event of the year kicks off this week in Indian Wells, where Elena Rybakina is the defending champion. It’s been an action-packed WTA season so far, with some great champions reaffirming their spot at the top of the tour, and some unpredictable results that have given us some new breakout players. There are questions galore before the Sunshine Double gets going, so let’s dive into the draw quarter by quarter.
Iga Świątek’s Quarter
Top Seeds: [1] Iga Świątek, [6] Ons Jabeur, [10] Jelena Ostapenko, [15] Ekaterina Alexandrova
Burning Question: Can Iga Świątek navigate another section full of big ball strikers?
If you saw Iga Świątek’s draw and continued to refresh your page, thinking that her Australian Open draw was copied and pasted in on accident, you are forgiven. Once again, the world number one drew a section full of aggressive, big ball strikers, and her early path is nearly identical to her draw in Melbourne. After a first round bye, she’ll take on either a qualifier or Danielle Collins, who she beat in three tight sets in the second round in Australia (winning the final five games after trailing 4-1 in the third). Then, it may very well be Linda Noskova, who knocked the Pole out of the Aussie Open in round three. The rest of Świątek’s quarter isn’t lacking for power either. Madison Keys and Alexandrova await as potential round four opponents, and Świątek’s nemesis Jelena Ostapenko looms in a possible quarterfinal.
Despite all of that, Świątek should feel pretty good about her chances in the California desert. The slow, high-bouncing courts in Indian Wells should suit her game better than the ones in Melbourne, and has played some of her best tennis there in the past. She’s 12-2 in main draw matches here, winning the title in 2022 and making the semifinals last year. The slow courts really help her elite return game, where she’s won over 50% of return points in 10 of those 14 matches. Świątek played poorly by her standards in her recent loss to Anna Kalinskaya in Dubai, and even then it took a miserable 2-for-11 day on break points for her to fall after a few consecutive long weeks. The draw isn’t friendly, but it will take a Herculean performance to take her down.
Bracket Buster: Katie Boulter/Mirra Andreeva
Boulter’s upside in this tournament is likely limited with Świątek as her possible third-round opponent, but she deserves a mention with her recent form. The Brit took home her biggest career title in San Diego last week, coming from a set down to beat Marta Kostyuk in the final and grabbing five consecutive wins over top 40 players. She’s hitting her forehand bigger, destroying opponent second serves, and is serving really well. Heading into the tournament, she’s fourth in hold percentage among the top 50 in 2024. The only three ahead of her? None other than Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Świątek and Elena Rybakina. Not bad! A second round match between her and Noskova would be must-see.
Andreeva is always going to be a bad draw until she ends up as a seed, which will likely be sooner rather than later. The 16-year old has put together an impressive resume already in her young career; she’s 20-11 in WTA main draws, and is already 6-6 against top 20 players. Pretty amazing! She’ll get Katie Volynets in round 1 before a potential rematch against Ons Jabeur, a draw she’ll be happy with. Andreeva dominated Jabeur 6-0 6-2 at the Australian Open, her biggest ever win, and Jabeur has played just three matches (losing two of them) since then while she struggles with a knee injury. The stars are aligning for Andreeva to make another good run at a big event.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Iga Świątek over Jelena Ostapenko in three sets
Ostapenko’s rise back into the top 10 has been fueled by her consistency. She’s 25-10 since the start of the US Open, and is 16-1 in 2024 against anyone not named Victoria Azarenka. Her relentless power and attacking style are still there, but she’s less error prone and is protecting her second serve better than she has in the past. On the other side, Świątek has a tough draw through the first four rounds, but it would still be surprising to see her knocked off early.
That brings me to the matchup. Ostapenko’s 4-0 record against Świątek is well-documented, including her stunning final two sets against her in New York last fall, but Iga isn’t just going to lose to her every time (I don’t think). So far in 2024, Świątek is making more first serves and has been very clutch against break points, two things that she has struggled with against Ostapenko in the past. That, combined with the favorable conditions, gives the world number one the edge for me.
Elena Rybakina’s Quarter
Top Seeds: [4] Elena Rybakina, [7] Marketa Vondroušová, [12] Beatriz Haddad Maia, [13] Jasmine Paolini
Burning Question: How will all of 2024’s new breakout players fare?
Can I interest anyone in a rubber match between Jasmine Paolini and Anna Kalinskaya? It’s not a guarantee, of course, but the two are slated to meet in round three and have manageable second round draws heading into it. The two have already played twice in 2024, with Kalinskaya knocking Paolini off handedly in their Australian Open round of 16 encounter on her way to the quarterfinals. Paolini got her revenge just under a month later in the Dubai final, mounting a great comeback from a set and a break down and 5-3 down in the third set to win the biggest title of her career. Kalinskaya especially has been in strong form over the last year, with a 37-16 record over the last 52 weeks after struggling with injuries throughout her early career.
Marta Kostyuk is also in this section as the No. 31 seed, and is having a breakout year of her own in 2024. The Ukrainian made her first major quarterfinal in Melbourne and also reached the final in San Diego last week. Kostyuk has a decent draw coming up, with a qualifier or Shuai Zhang in the second round and the recently out-of-form Vondroušová, who is just 4-4 in 2024.
Bracket Buster: McCartney Kessler
There were no obvious candidates in this quarter, but I like Kessler’s draw here. The former University of Florida star has rapidly risen in the rankings and is coming off of a win in Puerto Vallarta last week as a lucky loser. While she hasn’t beaten a top 100 player in 2024, she is 13-2 overall and has won 10 matches in a row at lower levels. The wild card also got a draw that could allow a nice run: a qualifier in round one, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (likely her toughest test) in round two, and Beatriz Haddad Maia in round three, who is 6-7 this year.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Elena Rybakina over Marta Kostyuk in 2 sets
I was tempted to go with Kalinskaya here, who has looked great this year and has played Rybakina very tough in their meetings last year. Her counterpunching and willingness to attack the second serve bothers the Kazakh, but Rybakina played exceptional tennis en route to this title last year and is 17-3 with two titles in 2024. It should also be said that Rybakina has won the only two tournaments she played after resting the week before this year (Brisbane and Abu Dhabi), so she should be firing on all cylinders here.
I talked about Kostyuk’s draw above, and I really think the bottom half of this quarter is wide open, with a bunch of names that wouldn’t surprise me in a quarterfinal. I’ll go with the recent form of Kostyuk though, although Vondroušová is still extremely dangerous when healthy. In this specific matchup, Kostyuk’s serve doesn’t bother Rybakina enough, and the defending champion’s power from the baseline will likely be too much for the Ukrainian to overcome.
Aryna Sabalenka’s Quarter
Top Seeds: [2] Aryna Sabalenka, [5] Jessica Pegula, [9] Maria Sakkari, [16] Elina Svitolina
Burning Question: Can Jessica Pegula get back on track on home soil?
“Back on track” makes it sound like Pegula has been bad recently, and she hasn’t. But she also hasn’t been the bona fide top five player that she was in 2023, winning six of her nine matches since the new year. Sure, the disappointing no-show against Clara Burel at the Australian Open leaves a bad taste that lingers for a while, and now she has another chance to right the ship at a big event. She’ll have to do it without her longtime coach, David Witt, who she parted ways with earlier this month, and will now be working with Maria Sakkari (Sakkari-Pegula in the round of 16? Sign me up!).
One thing to watch with Pegula’s game: the second serve. She’s winning just 42.9% of her points behind the second delivery this year (small sample, to be fair), which would easily be a career low. Last year, for reference, she was up at 51%. Her draw is littered with players, such as Karolina Plíšková in the second round, who will attack her second serve, so that shot could be make-or-break for Pegula this tournament.
Bracket Buster: Karolina Plíšková
Okay, I’ll admit it. I’m cheating a little bit with this one. Pliskova is pretty clearly under ranked after winning just one match in her last four majors and missing the last three months of 2023 with a wrist injury. Regardless, the former #1 has been on fire in 2024, losing just one match to a player outside of the top 10 (against Katerina Siniaková in Adelaide) and taking home the title in her home tournament in Cluj-Napoca. Anna Blinkova isn’t an easy first round, but I would favor the Czech to advance into a second round against Pegula, who is facing some uncertainty with her coaching situation and will be under a lot of pressure heading into this month.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka over Karolina Plíšková in three sets
Sabalenka fell just short of the title here last year, but that was really her first taste of success at the event. Last year was her only quarterfinal at the event, but she was very impressive in rolling through three top 20 players before falling to Rybakina in a very close final. It will be interesting to see how the recent Australian Open champion will respond to her surprising loss to Donna Vekić in Dubai, the only match she has played since earning her second major title, but she should be well rested and has been a model of consistency over the past six months. Before the loss to Vekic, Sabalenka hadn’t lost to a player ranked outside the top 10 since August of last year.
In her recent form, Plíšková has a great chance against anyone in her section here. She’s arguably a toss up against Pegula in round two, and she would likely be favored in a round of 32 matchup with Leylah Fernandez. Sakkari would make for an interesting round of 16 with her new coaching setup (Plíšková leads H2H 4-3), but I think Plíšková has a good chance to make it through here.
Coco Gauff’s Quarter
Top Seeds: [3] Coco Gauff, [8] Qinwen Zheng, [11] Daria Kasatkina, [14] Liudmila Samsonova
Burning Question: Is Naomi Osaka ready to be back at the top of the game yet?
Look, I know it’s soon, and I don’t ask this to put pressure on her. I ask this because I think she’s in decent form and she might finally get a look at some players who will give her some time to play. Oh yeah, and she’s a former champion at Indian Wells, which always helps. We know that Osaka has the power to hit through any court, and the serve has been firing all year for the most part. What’s been hurting her is the return (winning just 35.6% of return points in 2024), but part of that is playing Pliskova and Garcia in four of her seven matches. Does the slower surface give her the extra fraction of a second she needs to punish opponents’ serves the way she did when she was a top player? She gets a qualifier first and Liudmila Samsonova if she wins. If she gets through those two, nobody will want to see her on the other side of the net.
Bracket Buster: Sloane Stephens
Osaka would be the answer here, but since I already talked about her I’ll go with Stephens, who is the second-most dangerous unseeded player in this draw. Her inconsistency is maddening, and she’s coming off of a lopsided loss to Anastasija Sevastova where she was completely ineffective on serve. I still give her a chance here because of her showing against Świątek in Dubai, where she gave the World No. 1 a whole bunch of problems that the scoreline wouldn’t suggest. Stephens dragged Świątek into a lot of long rallies and came out on top in most of them, counterpunching well and hitting with great depth throughout the match. According to Tennis Abstract, Stephens won 22 out of 36 rallies of 7 or more shots in that match.
Stephens gets Mayar Sherif in the first round, and Sorana Cîrstea if she advances to round two. Cîrstea beat Stephens in straight sets in Doha last month, but if Stephens can make it to round three, she leads the head-to-head with Daria Kasatkina 4-1.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Victoria Azarenka over Coco Gauff in three sets
This pick is a combination of me not wanting to go full chalk and also liking Azarenka’s form more than Gauff’s so far this season. Azarenka has played well this year, and despite not winning a title, her losses are to Dayana Yastremska at the Australian Open, Aryna Sabalenka in Brisbane, Iga Swiatek in Doha and Elena Rybakina in Dubai (where she retired after the second set). On top of that, Azarenka is 37-12 all time at Indian Wells and is a two-time champion. Zheng is a tough third round draw, but Azarenka should feel pretty good after that.
Gauff has had a perplexing season. She made the Australian Open semis and won the title in Auckland, but it doesn’t feel like she’s playing at the level that she was during the American hard court summer last year when she was tearing through the rest of the tour. A lot of that comes down to the serve. Gauff’s ace rate is down in 2024, and her second serve has been especially vulnerable, as she’s winning just 43.2% of points off of the second delivery (her lowest since 2020). Gauff is still lethal on return, one of the best defenders in the world, winning more than half of her return games so far this year. Additionally, the high-bouncing courts could help her forehand effectiveness by giving opponents high contact points, but I’d like to see the serve return to form before I trust her to roll through lower ranked opponents.
Final Weekend Prediction
Semifinal 1: Iga Świątek defeats Elena Rybakina in three sets
Semifinal 2: Aryna Sabalenka defeats Victoria Azarenka in two sets
Final: Iga Świątek defeats Aryna Sabalenka in three sets
Embed from Getty Images


