By Tom Jones
As I start this piece, it is 5am UK time on September 4th. Iga Świątek’s U.S. Open title defense has just lost to Jelena Ostapenko in the 4th round. She is no longer the world number one. Aryna Sabalenka will take that spot after the U.S. Open, ending a 75-week run at the top for Świątek, who leaves the Arthur Ashe Stadium without her crown for the first time since April 2022 when Ash Barty suddenly retired from the sport.
This has been coming for a long while. Since Sabalenka won the Madrid final over Świątek, the margins have been extremely tight in the rankings and Sabalenka has had opportunities at slams to take the number one ranking from her. At Roland-Garros, Świątek was due to lose number one if she lost her semifinal. Sabalenka was one win away at Wimbledon, and had she made the final (which she was two games away from doing) she would be the number one already.
At this U.S. Open, Świątek needed to get one more win than Sabalenka to stay at the top. Considering Sabalenka’s remarkable consistency in slams this year, that would likely have meant making the final or winning the title. Imagine that. You’ve got to make it to the tail end of a grand slam, the last of the year, just to maintain a slight lead at number one.
Sabalenka has been on Świątek’s heels from the word go in 2023. She’s led the WTA Race (points accumulated from the start of the year) since she won Adelaide way back at the start of the year. Let’s make it very clear: Sabalenka deserves this. Their tour results have been even for most of the year, but Sabalenka has been more consistent in slams — the rankings reward that. She grinded Świątek down over the course of eight months, matching her pound for pound and Świątek finally came up short right at the finish line against a player who had beaten her before.
With all that said, last night’s match was disappointing for Świątek and highlights some of the key reasons she’s losing the ranking. She played an extremely clean opening set against Ostapenko to start. She served very well, mainly going for body serves but throwing in serves out wide to great effect as a switch up that caught Ostapenko out and got multiple aces. She was matching Ostapenko in rallies when they happened and was very rarely being left flat footed with a winner flying past her. That can happen with Ostapenko — that’s her whole thing — but it mainly happens if and when you give her the balls to let rip on. Świątek was controlling points far more and when the winners did fly, she didn’t let it get to her; she did well to accept that it wasn’t always on her racket.
Really, she could and arguably should have closed this match out in two sets. It was two poor service games that cost her the set and that will not come as a shock to anyone who has watched her matches in the past few months.
Her serve has been an issue for a long time. Many people point to the second serve as the problem; it is vulnerable as she often goes for a slow kick serve. On her favored clay it works a treat and gets her out of trouble often. On hard or grass courts though, that serve just sits up at the perfect angle, not actually kicking off the surface to force an awkward return. Ostapenko was teeing off on some of those second serves when put in the middle of the box at 80 mph. A lot of big hitters on tour have been, too.
I think because the return winners are more eye-catching, people think the second serve is the issue. But Świątek wins plenty of second serve points — you don’t stay at number one for such a long spell with that obvious a weakness. People know to attack it, they just can’t usually do it with enough success. The real issue is first serve, primarily her low first serve percentage in big moments. In the service games Świątek lost to Ostapenko, she was not consistently making first serves which put her under so much more pressure. Giving opponents consistent looks at the second serve only magnifies that pressure.
When Świątek has needed her serve the most in big matches this season — the Madrid final against Sabalenka, the Rome quarterfinal against Rybakina, this match — it has deserted her. In the first set of the Madrid final she was rolling first serves in because she was struggling to land them at all. In Rome, she led a set and a break before failure to land first serves cost her that lead and eventually the second set. Last night, she allowed Ostapenko essentially to just focus on her own service games, having gifted her the break. Ostapenko served phenomenally all match and particularly in that second set. Świątek offered the opportunities, Ostapenko wasn’t going to give them up.
And that’s been the issue in Świątek’s losses a lot of this season, gifting breaks that she won’t get back. In a lot of matches over the summer, there has been, consistently, at least one bad service game every set. And it’s not just that it’s first serve misses that lead to return winners, it’s strings of loose unforced errors from nowhere. I’ve seen more forehands into the net (that in any other situation clear it cleanly) than I can count. That’s the concern: She’s so consistently offered the chances. That will catch up to you in moments like the Ostapenko match, when there’s a lot on the line.
That serving problem is as much a technical issue as a mental one. The classic tennis mantra is “bad technique breaks down under pressure”. Well, Iga Świątek’s serve is consistently breaking down under pressure. In these matches against bigger servers, I think she feels the pressure on her own service games far more. She doesn’t have as much margin for error; she can’t reliably break the serve of a Sabalenka or a Rybakina, they can just take the racket out of your hands. In the pressure moments today, she faltered. At 3-4 in the second set, Ostapenko broke to serve for the set, Świątek’s serve deserting her once again. 3-4 has been a bit of a cursed game for her: it was 3-4 in the third of both the Ostrava(!!!) and Madrid finals that she was broken to let her opponent serve for the match. In these tight moments, these clutch moments, she keeps coming up short.
The serve has improved in areas, however. She’s hitting more aces and getting more variety in her serves- those wide serves we saw against Ostapenko were not in her game a few months ago. Technical changes in tennis are slow and under huge scrutiny; they will take a lot of time to bed in properly. She can serve well in some matches and moments, but still cannot do so regularly when the serve is under pressure for extended periods. Even the world number one has improvements to make.
So, Świątek could have won the in two, but didn’t. Okay, whatever, we went to a third and final set. This pair’s last match went to a final set tiebreak in Dubai 2022, so it wasn’t over yet. But, uh…it was over. Alarmingly quickly. Świątek had the trademark poor service game to start the third set. Ostapenko rattled through her service game again, slamming aces down the middle with pinpoint precision. Świątek’s returning timing was way off — maybe a mix of fatigue, frustration, and quality from her opponent. And then, 30-0 up in the third game, Świątek began to collapse. A second break. Another easy hold with poor returning. Świątek was spiraling, her title defense on the verge of collapse. And another break came. 5-0.
Some people were extremely critical of that final set. I understand why; watching a world number one, with so much on the line, fall apart so dramatically is startling. I have had rash moments calling out her attitude towards the end of losses. I had no qualms about the loss last night, though. Ostapenko did not let up for three sets; she continued to find the court with almost every shot and kept the pressure up the entire time. She often will have spells of winners and then spells of dumping forehand returns into the net. Today, she was pretty much perfect from ball one. That takes its toll.
For me, that last set wasn’t pathetic or giving up the fight. It was a player hitting the wall. In that final set on Arthur Ashe, you could see the burden of 75 weeks at world number one, being relentlessly chased and grinded down by Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina from the word go, on display.
Świątek has played more matches than anyone else this season. She must be utterly exhausted and was being asked to dig deep and find a level and a desire within her that frankly only the very greatest players to ever do it probably could have found. Let us not start criticizing a player who has essentially been tasked with jumping through fiery hoops every week to stay at the top for failing once after eight full torturous months. I think many players would have buckled earlier.
*****
Aryna Sabalenka is the new world number one. It comes as a due reward for a remarkably consistent season. There was the maiden grand slam title in Australia, a first Indian Wells final, another Madrid title beating Świątek in an epic final, a first ever Roland Garros semi-final, another Wimbledon semi-final too. She has found remarkable consistency this year coming off a very dark 2022 struggling with her serve and double faults galore. The turnaround to regain control of that serve is impressive enough, let alone the other staggering achievements.
I am happy for Sabalenka, and I don’t say that through gritted teeth or just to be polite. It would have been insane to think that after everything she’s done this year, she wouldn’t end up at number one. Imagine how soul crushing that would be; to chase and chase all year, come so unbelievably close but lose out because of a combo of another slam semi-final chokes and the number one rocking up and winning another slam in front of your eyes. I don’t know how she would get up and go again in 2024 if she hadn’t achieved this.
This is how number ones can fall. They are chased by the pack, pushed as far as they possibly can be by the newest challenger and they finally bow out because they just cannot give any more. It might not seem the most gracious way to lose your status — I know there have been cases where players take it with victory rather than relying on defeat and that probably feels better, but is it a surprising way to go?
The world number one is a much coveted and desired position, obviously. It’s the pinnacle of the game. It’s what everyone wants more than anything else, but I think the great and curious dichotomy is that once it is achieved, it’s a double-edged sword. The world number one is a burden as much as a joy. There’s nowhere left to climb. Everyone is chasing you. You’re the standard, the one to beat, the scalp everyone is after. That is a heavy burden to carry, and it is one Iga Świątek has felt quite acutely in 2023.
She was very open about playing not to lose at the Australian Open this year, going out in the fourth round there too to Elena Rybakina. At the start of 2023 she felt the burden, I am not sure if she still felt it here, but I can’t help but feel it was a factor in the end. There is no shame in that. A 22-year-old cannot be expected to carry this forever and not have the weight affect them.
More than anything, I am so impressed how with how Świątek has responded to the setbacks this year. She was never going to be able to replicate 2022, a year in which she had a 37 match winning streak and won two grand slam titles as well as four WTA 1000s. She played at her absolute peak level for months on end, which was not realistically sustainable. She has still had a wonderful season and achieved brilliant things. She made the final of Madrid for the first time. She made a Wimbledon quarterfinal for the first time and had career-best runs in Canada and Cincinnati with a semifinal at each. Oh, and she defended her Roland-Garros title, the first successful slam title defense on the WTA since Serena Williams at Wimbledon in 2016. Not bad going. That was the big goal for the year and she achieved it. Anything else is a bonus.
I feel similarly to how I did watching the winning streak end in 2022 to Alizé Cornet at Wimbledon. Realizing in the latter stages of that match the end was here, it was over. I had time to process it as the match went still, and back then, like now, I think you could tell she was hitting the wall. She had nothing left to give and she spiraled.
I was upset, naturally, as I am now. But it also gives us the chance to properly reflect on the achievements, now that it is a chapter closed and not an ongoing saga, a treadmill of unending high stakes. We can appreciate how insane 75 weeks at world number one in her first stint is: third best only behind Martina Hingis and Steffi Graf (not bad company!).
We can appreciate how volatile the WTA rankings could have been if Świątek had not defined the position as she did. Ash Barty left the sport suddenly, a clear number one and leader suddenly gone. Świątek began her streak there in unusual circumstances, not winning it, not gaining it through an opponent losing, but inheriting it by the luck of retirement. Oh, how it spurred her on!
It’s not like all is lost for Świątek, either. I doubt she takes number one back again before the end of the year, that is very much Sabalenka’s honor now, but look at 2024. She didn’t play Miami this year after winning it in 2022. She retired from her quarterfinal in Rome as a two-time defending champion. She hasn’t won any WTA 1000s this year and has fourth-round losses at two of the four slams. She has plenty of room to improve, as mad as that sounds with 8000 points to her name.
She now also gets the luxury of time off. She has time to recharge, mentally and physically, but also to work on the practice court. When do elite level players get genuine training blocks to work and improve? She knows that she has things to improve, and I’m sure with greater clarity and improvement her mentality woes will end. Just look how much she improved after one week of practice ahead of this U.S. Open.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, will defend 2500 points immediately come January including her maiden slam. No one defends their maiden slam. She then has an Indian Wells final to back up, a Madrid title and then two grand slam semi-finals in the stretch of five weeks. She will almost certainly lose the #1 ranking much faster than Świątek did.
That’s the beauty and the burden of the tennis tour: the grind never stops. That’s the burden Iga Świątek dealt with so well in the face of adversity this year, and I’m more than certain that Sabalenka will cope with it too. But let’s be clear, Świątek isn’t out of the picture. I don’t think any player will have a huge stint at number one now. The points gaps are too tight, there’s too much to defend for the players at every swing. Świątek raised the standard of the new era, and we get to bask in the glory of it.
To close, I want to use an iconic tennis quote from Jimmy Connors about being number one. I’m sure you’ve heard a variation of it already.
“There is only one number one. It’s a lonely spot, but it has got the best view of all.”
I know Iga Świątek has found it lonely atop the WTA. She’s not exactly a personality naturally molded to be a star, but she has worn the crown gracefully and stepped into the void left by Ash Barty better than anyone could have imagined. Aryna Sabalenka, I am sure, will find it a lonely place at times, too. But I hope both women enjoy the view they’ve had while they’re up there, and I hope they’re both contending to rack up the weeks at that prestigious spot for many years to come.
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