Can Carlos Alcaraz Defend the U.S. Open Title?

September 9, 2008 — Roger Federer screamed in victory as he collapsed to the New York hard court. Andy Murray had just bunted a defensive forehand into the net, giving Federer his fifth consecutive U.S. Open title. Federer’s campaign for the trophy in 2008 was arduous, featuring a five-setter in the fourth round and a couple other tight matches. But for the most part, he had been imperious at the U.S. Open since 2004, scarcely breaking a sweat en route to his next major trophy. 

Since Federer beat Murray, there have been nine different first-time U.S. Open champions on the ATP, including the 2008 runner-up. Two of them, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, have won multiple titles in New York. But even they have never won the tournament two years in a row, which seems notable, especially against the sheen of Federer’s five-year hold on the tournament.

Why has no man been able to defend the U.S. Open since 2008?

For starters, the field has gotten stronger. Juan Martín del Potro won the title in 2009, and to this day is the only player besides Djokovic to beat both Federer and Nadal in a major. Nadal completed his evolution into an all-surface player in 2010, winning his first U.S. Open in September that year and going on to win the tournament more times than any ATP player in the following decade. Djokovic, who has a near-airtight case for being the greatest hard court player ever, stopped Nadal from defending the title in 2011 and won the tournament again in 2015 and 2018. Then Murray beat Djokovic in five sets to win the 2012 final, snuffing out Djokovic’s title defense. 

The legends of the men’s game aren’t the only obstacle. Everyone else, perennially blocked from winning the Australian Open, Roland-Garros and Wimbledon by some combination of the Big Four, tends to play with an extra dose of vigor at the U.S. Open. Marin Čilić swept everyone aside in 2014, seemingly blessed with a random bolt of lightning from the tennis gods. Stan Wawrinka caught fire in 2016. Frances Tiafoe took out Nadal just last year. Ben Shelton is having the tournament of his life right now after failing to win back-to-back tour level matches for most of the year. Though he wasn’t defending the title in 2021, Djokovic was worn down by a brutal draw as virtually all his opponents played their best tennis, allowing a brilliant Daniil Medvedev to feast on his exhausted frame in the final. 

Then there’s the fact that the U.S. Open comes near the end of the calendar. Defending champions are sometimes worn thin, exhausted from the seven-month grind between the start of the season and the U.S. Open. Injury kept Nadal from even attempting to defend his title in 2014, and took out Djokovic mid-title defense in 2019. 

Rivals, the field, and injury have proven a combination that no man since Federer has been able to conquer for two years in a row. But there’s good reason to think that recent Wimbledon champion, world number one, and defending U.S. Open champion Carlos Alcaraz will be the one to break the duck. 

As mentioned, Alcaraz won the last U.S. Open, so if he can follow it up this year, the streak is over — though at just 20 years of age, he should have plenty more opportunities in the future. But let’s look at why he has a good chance to defend the title right now. First, he’s the best player in the world. Though he’ll soon lose the #1 ranking to Djokovic and narrowly lost to the Serb in the Cincinnati final, the five-set win over the 23-time major champion in July’s Wimbledon final more than makes up for that. Djokovic had not lost at Wimbledon in six years, which speaks volumes about how well Alcaraz had to play. Djokovic is an extremely close second, but after those two, the rest of the field is miles behind.

Then there’s his endurance. At last year’s U.S. Open, Alcaraz had to play three straight five-setters — he was match point down in the most difficult match among the trio, the quarterfinal with Jannik Sinner — before upending Casper Ruud in four to win the final. Alcaraz’s title win was precarious, but there’s an argument that the difficult road will serve him well in the future. Having won so many attritional matches in a row, Alcaraz is unlikely to get tired and lose the way the far older Djokovic, whose recovery abilities have faded slightly since his physical prime of the early-mid 2010s, did in the 2021 final. Not only that, but the young Spaniard is a significantly better player now than he was at last year’s Open. Alcaraz’s coach Juan Carlos Ferrero said then that his charge was only at 60% of his abilities, and even if that turns out to be an exaggeration, Alcaraz’s fierce rate of improvement isn’t slowing yet. Even if his last three opponents peak, Alcaraz could rip through them more easily than he did the end of his 2022 draw.

Alcaraz may also be catching the field, which is certainly weaker now than it was in the early 2010s (what with the Big Four firing on all cylinders), at the right time. Djokovic is unquestionably a massive threat — but he’s also clearly a lesser opponent at the U.S. Open than the Australian, having won three titles in New York to his 10 Down Under. And Alcaraz has most of the rest of his competition figured out. He beat Medvedev so badly at Wimbledon that some are questioning if it’s even possible for the 2021 U.S. Open champion to beat Alcaraz in the future. Alexander Zverev, Alcaraz’s quarterfinal opponent tonight, may have beaten him at Roland-Garros last year, but has gotten demolished in their most recent meeting and is coming off a marathon with Sinner.

Winning the U.S. Open is still going to be a battle, for Alcaraz or any eventual winner. The young Spaniard may be indefatigable over the course of a match or even a tournament, but no one is immune to the calendar’s long, slow grind. Djokovic has the confidence from the Cincinnati final and will still be out for revenge from Wimbledon. Alcaraz could pick up an injury like the one that forced him out of the Australian Open this year. Zverev or Medvedev could slowly wear Alcaraz out with their spindly defense, weaking him for Djokovic to finish off even if they don’t beat him themselves.

Right now, though, Alcaraz is my pick to win the U.S. Open for a second straight time. While there’s good reason that no one has been able to defend the title since Federer, the enormity of Alcaraz’s skill makes one think the young Spaniard will break the drought at some point, whether he wins the tournament this year or not. It’s just a matter of when.